Mortgage debt hits $1.97 trillion as delinquencies and fraud risks climb

TORONTO — Consumer debt in Canada has reached $2.68 trillion, with outstanding mortgage balances sitting at $1.97 trillion, according to Equifax Canada.

The mortgage figure is an increase of about 4% from the previous year, mainly due to higher renewal activity.

"Risking a borrower in 2026 does not look the same as risking a borrower in 2016, in 2019, and in 2020," said Lindsay Zwart, Equifax Canada’s director, solutions, mortgage and housing, speaking at the MortgageFest Canada event in Toronto.

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Mortgage delinquency among outstanding balances is running at 0.3%, about 30% higher than the same period last year, mainly concentrated in Ontario.

Non-mortgage delinquencies among homeowners are 12.5% above the same time in 2025, and insolvency filings have hit their highest level since 2009.

An Equifax analysis said at least $216 million in Ontario mortgage balances are currently sitting in severe delinquency and flagging on fraud tools, exposure that wasn’t identified at origination.

Zwart said the fraud picture is equally stark, with fraud losses in Ontario alone reaching troubling new thresholds.

"As a broker, your two most valuable currencies are your time and your reputation in the industry with your lenders," Zwart said.

Seventy-three percent of new mortgages are now in variable-rate or short-term products, with only 27% on a five-year fixed product.

Zwart suggested brokers should be alert to a change in preferences toward shorter mortgage terms.

"Instead of the great renewal, I think forward-looking, we need to be looking at the constant renewal," she said. "With those two years, those three years, those four years, those ARMs [adjustable-rate mortgages] that are coming up for renewal… as brokers, you’re going to be renewing on a very regular basis now."

Seven out of 10 borrowers are now purchasing in a co-borrowing arrangement, according to Zwart and Equifax.

Within that group, the proportion of co-borrowers with an age difference of 20 years or more has doubled since 2016.

Equifax has recorded a 3% decrease in property values nationally, meaning more existing homeowners are facing negative equity, higher loan-to-value ratios, and refinancing constraints at renewal time.

Mortgage fraud is most commonly perpetrated by those in the 26-to-45 age bracket, according to Zwart, and is concentrated in British Columbia and, more recently, Quebec.

Falsified financials and documents are the key driver in the mortgage space.

Looking ahead, Zwart flagged a number of additional headwinds, including a projected Bank of Canada benchmark rate increase to counter inflation.

Housing starts are declining thanks to raised labour and financing costs, potentially complicating the supply and affordability outlook even further.

A return-to-office trend, meanwhile, could push buyers back toward urban centres.

Add those trends to the continuing storm clouds around mortgage renewals, and Zwart suggested the value of brokers is only likely to grow in 2027.

"Whether it’s rising rates, housing starts, returning to office, mine your book," she said. "Your opportunity exists within your book."