Mid-November remains best estimate for Toronto's first significant snowfall
Environment Canada says the city's first snowfall of at least one centimetre typically arrives around the middle of November.
TORONTO — Mid-November remains the best estimate for Toronto's first significant snowfall despite the potential for a warmer-than-average winter due to a super El Niño.
According to Environment Canada, recent snowfall data suggests Toronto typically sees its first snowfall of at least one centimetre around the middle of November, although there can be considerable variation from year to year.
"Every few years, we get a little snow by the end of October," said Environment Canada meteorologist Peter Kimbell.
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He said October is generally too early for much in the way of snow, with the city averaging just 0.2 centimetres during the month compared with 9.3 centimetres in November.
Over the past five years, Toronto's first snowfall of at least one centimetre has generally arrived in November.
In 2025, the first such snowfall was 10 centimetres on Nov. 9, one of the largest accumulations on record for that early in the season.
It was a storm that led to traffic chaos across the Greater Toronto Area, with the Ontario Provincial Police reporting more than 300 weather-related incidents.
The year before that, in 2024, the city did not record at least one centimetre of snow until Dec. 4, when seven centimetres fell.
These trends make mid-November the best estimate based on recent climatology, Kimbell said.
Geoff Coulson, Environment and Climate Change Canada's warning preparedness meteorologist, said when asked about if this winter's strong El Niño could have an impact, it could increase the chances of a warmer-than-average winter in Ontario.
He cautioned its influence is generally stronger in Western Canada and does not provide much help in predicting the date of Toronto's first snowfall.
Kimbell said there remains "a lot of randomness involved in the weather forecast," making the city's historical averages a better guide.
The question of when the first real taste of winter will arrive will be top of mind for many who woke up to low single-digit temperatures Tuesday morning.
With files from Toronto Star