Chow and Bradford in dead heat as Toronto voters head to the polls

TORONTO · Toronto voters will choose their next mayor on Monday in a contest that has become unexpectedly close. Incumbent Olivia Chow is fighting to hold off a challenge from city councillor Brad Bradford, with recent polls showing the race as a dead heat. This marks one of the most tightly contested re-election bids by a sitting mayor in recent memory. No mayor has lost a bid for re-election since Toronto amalgamated in 1998. More than 220,000 people cast an early vote, a surge of nearly 72 per cent over the 2023 byelection.

Myer Siemiatycki, a professor emeritus at Toronto Metropolitan University, said the outcome is uncertain. “It looks like we are headed to a photo finish if the polls are reliable,” he said. Siemiatycki noted the tightening race reflects a broader political mood across Canada, pointing to the defeat of other incumbent mayors in British Columbia and the collapse of the CAQ in Quebec as signs of voter dissatisfaction. He suggested that Chow, as the early front-runner, may have run a “low-risk, low-key campaign” that could now be tested by Bradford's insurgent effort.

Chow’s campaign has emphasized her record since winning a 2023 byelection to replace John Tory. She argues the city is better off, citing a deal to upload expressway costs to the province, stricter rules against bad-faith evictions and expanded library hours. Her platform also highlights a transit fare freeze and reduced 911 wait times. She has defended her decisions to raise property taxes by 9.5 per cent and then 6.9 per cent as necessary to stabilize city finances after the pandemic, promising future increases will be near the rate of inflation.

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Bradford's focus on safety and change

Bradford, first elected to council in 2018, has positioned himself as Chow's main rival from the political right. A victory would represent a dramatic comeback after he finished a distant eighth in the 2023 mayoral race. His campaign has focused heavily on public safety, transit security and traffic congestion, portraying Chow as out of touch with residents' concerns. He has promised to hire 1,000 new police officers and supports mandatory treatment for people with serious addictions, a policy criticized by many health professionals.

He has also pledged a one-year freeze on property taxes, frequently criticizing Chow's hikes. Bradford has called for removing bike lanes on Bloor Street in Etobicoke and priority bus lanes in Scarborough, despite having supported both projects as a councillor. He describes this as pragmatic responsiveness to constituents, but Chow's campaign has accused him of flip-flopping for political gain. Fifteen council incumbents have also spoken out against his plan to turn the city's water department into a separate public utility.

Open council seats and provincial dynamics

Bradford's run for mayor has created an open race in his Beaches-East York ward, where former federal Liberal MP Nate Erskine-Smith and CTV reporter Natalie Johnson are prominent candidates. Several other council races are also competitive. Mike Layton is seeking to reclaim his old University-Rosedale seat, prompting incumbent Dianne Saxe to run instead in Toronto-Danforth. The retirement of progressive stalwart Gord Perks has opened Parkdale-High Park to candidates including housing worker Diana Chan McNally.

Incumbents like Chris Moise, Vincent Crisanti, Frances Nunziata and Parthi Kandavel are expected to face tough re-election fights. The municipal election occurs as Premier Doug Ford's government pursues plans to overhaul Toronto's bike lane network and expand the island airport without city approval. While Bradford's campaign staff includes former Ford aides, the premier recently praised his working relationship with Chow, telling reporters to “read between the lines” when asked about the race. His office later clarified those comments were not an endorsement.

With files from The Canadian Press and Toronto Star