Scientist says high fire risk, gusty winds preceded deadly CFB Wainwright blaze
An atmospheric physics professor says the Fire Weather Index was high and a forecast cold front brought gusts before the grass fire killed four soldiers.
WAINWRIGHT — A University of Toronto scientist says conditions were primed for wildfire at CFB Wainwright before a grass fire killed four soldiers and injured dozens more during a training exercise last week.
Atmospheric physics professor Kent Moore said the forecast and the Fire Weather Index provided clues that military training planners should not have overlooked.
Moore said the index gives a measure of how prone an area is to fire, and the Fire Weather Index for Wainwright on Saturday was really high, so the conditions were set.
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He said the conditions were primed for a fire and that planners probably should have taken some extra precautions.
The fire started on the base during "high-intensity combat training with live munitions," Maj.-Gen. Wade Rutland, commander of the 1st Canadian Division battalion, told reporters in a briefing the day after the Oct. 17 fire.
The exercise for the Third Battalion Princess Patricia's Canadian Light Infantry was meant to prepare them to become a global response task force.
"They were throwing hand grenades on a hand grenade range and conducting what we call a section attack, 10 soldiers attacking a simulated enemy," Rutland said, not speculating about the specific cause.
"There was a multitude of ordnance moving through the Wainwright training area, grenade launcher, grenades, small arms, ammunition. Quite frankly, it could have been any of that or none of it."
The fire had been burning for hours before it took a sudden turn towards the victims, Rutland said.
"The range control knew there was a fire for several hours. It was decided that that could carry on for a certain amount of time, as it was contained," he said.
Moore said the cold fronts that produce gusty winds are relatively easy to forecast.
"They don't get them exactly right, but the weather models do capture them. I think there was probably pretty good warning that there was going to be gusty conditions that afternoon," he said.
Saturday afternoon, a forecast cold front came through. Accompanying winds gusted upwards of 80 kilometres an hour around 4 p.m. local time.
"The weather for the majority of the day was well within standard procedures, well below 50 (km/h)," Rutland said Sunday.
The commander on the ground during the tragedy told Rutland the fire was a kilometre away from the victims when it seemed to take on velocity.
"He said within 30 seconds to a minute they saw no fire, and then there was a fire right on top of them," Rutland recalled.
Moore said it is absolutely true a fire smouldering a kilometre away can bear down within a minute because of wind.
If a gust of wind is blowing 80 km an hour, an ember borne on it can travel a kilometre in a minute.
"Grass fires can move quite quickly, much quicker than a fire in a boreal forest," he said.
"I think people were assuming that that kilometre was enough of a buffer to keep the troops safe, but the thing with grass fires is that they can move really, really quickly, and that's behavior which is a little bit different from what you would find in a forest fire."
He said the grass was high and starting to die off after a good summer.
"So essentially, we had these conditions where there was a lot of fuel around, dead or dying grass."
Moore cited recent examples of grass fires that took people by surprise, including the town of Lahaina, Hawaii, and summer wildfires in the Okanagan.
"Very strong winds led to the fire rapidly moving and also growing in size," he said.
He said planners would do well to consult the Fire Weather Index and cold fronts bearing gusting winds, and also redirect efforts to putting out any smouldering blazes instead of continuing to work nearby.
Change in climate can have summers stretching longer and falls get warmer, Moore noted.
"Had it been maybe 30-40 years ago, it probably would have been a bit colder, and maybe even some snow had would have fallen recently, so there would be some more soil moisture," Moore said.
"My heart just goes out to the troops, it must have been horrible to be in that situation," he said.
Your Space Hamilton reported earlier this week that the fire, which started as a smouldering grass fire, engulfed soldiers at a firing range during high winds.
With files from Edmonton Journal and Yahoo News