Record-breaking El Niño could bring warmer, drier winter across Canada

A record-strong El Niño event in the Pacific Ocean is expected to bring a warmer than normal winter to much of Canada. The warming phenomenon, which occurs every three to seven years, has reached unprecedented intensity with ocean temperatures 3.5 degrees Celsius above average. Environment Canada senior climatologist David Phillips said the tropical Pacific waters are the warmest ever recorded. While the event will influence weather patterns for months, its peak is still weeks away, likely arriving in early December.

The system works by reversing typical trade winds, pushing warm water east toward the Americas instead of west toward Asia. This shift alters atmospheric circulation, moving the subtropical jet stream northward. Global News chief meteorologist Anthony Farnell said this brings a lot of Pacific air and mild temperatures across the continent. The effects of this powerful El Niño will combine with ongoing climate change, potentially leading to more extreme weather events in the coming year.

Regional forecasts vary significantly across the country. Western provinces, including British Columbia, Alberta and the Prairies, are likely to experience milder temperatures and fewer storms. Farnell warned this could also mean drier conditions, impacting ski resorts and raising concerns for next year's wildfire season. In central and eastern Canada, including Ontario, Quebec and the Maritimes, above-seasonal conditions are expected, which typically means less snowfall.

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Farnell cautioned that a warmer forecast does not mean winter is cancelled. He said we are still going to have those bouts of extreme cold, they may not last as long. The snow that does fall could be heavy at times but may not persist due to fluctuating temperatures. Phillips noted that rapid snowmelt from warm spells or rain can disrupt winter recreation industries that depend on a stable snowpack.

The full impact of the El Niño will be delayed and prolonged. Farnell said over the next six months to a year is when we're really going to see the extremes. He predicted the event will raise global temperatures further, compounding with climate change. Farnell said it is just going to bring the temperature of the planet up another step and that is something that with climate change combined is going to have some definitely long-lasting impacts. This combination is expected to increase the frequency and severity of extreme weather. Farnell said with climate change you end with more extremes, so the combo of the two will bring big storms, ice storms, droughts, fires, floods, all of that in the months ahead. The current forecast follows an earlier prediction of a warm, dry fall across much of Canada, which Your Space Hamilton reported in September was also driven by the developing El Niño.

With files from Global News