Wildfire experts question military account of deadly CFB Wainwright fire
Satellite data and weather forecasts reviewed by experts suggest the fire and dangerous winds were not as unexpected as the military described.
WAINWRIGHT · A new analysis of weather and satellite data challenges the Canadian Armed Forces' description of the deadly grass fire at CFB Wainwright on Oct. 17. The military has called the event "entirely anomalous," saying flames travelled a kilometre in 30 to 60 seconds due to uncommonly strong winds. Seven wildfire experts who reviewed the data for Global News say the dangerous conditions were forecast and the fire was already spreading hours before it overran soldiers. The findings raise questions about what base commanders knew and why training continued as a cold front approached.
Satellite imagery showed a two-kilometre stretch of fire burning at noon that day as winds increased. Environment Canada had forecast a cold front with powerful winds the previous day and issued wind warnings for the area earlier on Oct. 17. "This was not unexpected given the forecast cold front, the actively spreading fire and the wind warnings that were issued earlier in the day," said Jen Beverly, an associate professor of wildland fire at the University of Alberta. Experts say leadership should have recognized the danger from the incoming weather.
The fire killed four soldiers and injured 39 others, 19 critically, when it swept through the training grounds around 4 p.m. While the military described a sudden, rapid intensification, experts say the flames were unlikely to travel at the reported speed, though traumatic events can lead to imprecise estimates. The key issue, according to the analysis, is that the hazards of wind and fire were foreseeable. Nearly two weeks later, it remains unclear what warnings were given to soldiers or why they remained in the area.
The military has launched a Board of Inquiry to investigate the tragedy, a process it says could take more than a year. In the meantime, weather records and satellite observations provide clues about the fire's progression and the forecast conditions. The base, originally established as Buffalo National Park in 1909, consists of vast grasslands prone to strong winds. Your Space Hamilton reported in October that a high Fire Weather Index and gusty winds preceded the fatal blaze.
With files from Global News