Report warns Canada's housing push at risk from low apprenticeship completion

A new report warns that Canada's ambitious housing goals are at risk because the country's apprenticeship system is failing to produce enough skilled tradespeople.

The report, prepared for the Residential Construction Council of Ontario (RESCON), highlights that apprenticeship completion rates have remained stuck at roughly 20% of registrations since 2013.

Imagine a university where only one in five students graduated. Policymakers would rightly view that as a crisis requiring immediate attention.

"Every housing target ultimately depends on the availability of carpenters, electricians, plumbers, bricklayers, heavy equipment operators and dozens of other skilled tradespeople," the report states. "Without them, housing policies become little more than plans on paper."

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The report, titled "Are We Ready to Build Canada? A Behavioural Analysis of Canada’s Construction Talent Pipeline and Skills Training Policy," was prepared by Nathaniel Barr, professor of creativity and senior advisor, innovation at Sheridan College; Michael McNamara, professor of creativity and director of the Community Ideas Factory at Sheridan; and James K. Stewart, economist and a senior fellow at the C.D. Howe Institute.

It argues that the low completion rate is not primarily an economic problem but a design problem, and that systems have been built on unrealistic assumptions about how people behave.

"The report argues that Canada's apprenticeship challenge is not primarily an economic problem. It is a design problem," the authors write.

"People face competing demands from work and family. They become overwhelmed by complexity. They struggle with uncertainty and self-doubt," the report states. "These are not character flaws. They are normal aspects of human behaviour."

The report calls for apprenticeship systems to be redesigned around how people actually behave, not how policymakers wish they behaved.

Solutions include simplifying complicated application processes, providing targeted supports at critical stages, developing interventions to maintain engagement during long training periods and creating mentoring programs to reduce social isolation.

The urgency is magnified by demographics, with more than 700,000 skilled trades workers expected to retire by 2028. In construction alone, approximately 15% of the workforce is projected to retire by 2034.

Richard Lyall, president of RESCON, said the findings should serve as a wake-up call.

"If we want to build more homes, we must first build a better system for the people who build them," Lyall wrote.

The report says governments need to make apprenticeship completion rates a central performance measure, defining success by how many people emerge as certified tradespeople, not by how many enter the system.

It notes that while the labour market has temporarily eased workforce pressures, many workers have already left residential construction due to current market conditions.

"When housing demand rebounds and construction activity accelerates, the industry could find itself confronting severe labour shortages," the report warns.

The authors maintain that the traditional approach has focused heavily on recruitment, assuming completion rates would take care of themselves.

"Drawing on behavioural science, the authors maintain that apprenticeship systems have been designed around unrealistic assumptions about how people make decisions and handle challenges," the report states.

Your Space Hamilton reported in October that Ontario universities are turning to private partners to build student housing.

With files from Storeys