Canadian home prices fall for fourth straight month as market balance hits 32-year low

The price of a typical Canadian home fell for a fourth consecutive month in September as sales dropped and the market balance hit its weakest level in 32 years.

Data from the Canadian Real Estate Association shows the composite benchmark price dropped 0.9 percent, or $5,700, to $651,400 last month.

That price is 3.4 percent, or $22,700, lower than a year ago and sits at its lowest level since February 2021.

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"It’s a timeline that really highlights how bizarre the initial surge was," the data notes.

There were 36,657 existing homes sold through the MLS in September, 7.7 percent fewer than last year.

CREA has only reported weaker September sales three times in the past 10 years: in 2023, 2022 and 2018.

The initial correction explains the weak volumes in 2022 and 2023, while 2018’s slump was during the initial rollout of Ontario’s foreign buyer tax.

New listings remained high, with 88,186 properties hitting the market last month.

It was 5.4 percent lower than last year, but remains the second most new listings in September on record.

The sales-to-new-listings ratio fell to 41.6 percent, the weakest September since 1994.

Traditionally, analysts refer to an SNLR between 40 percent and 60 percent as a balanced market.

However, CREA’s updated guidance considers 45 percent to 65 percent balanced at the national level.

According to the new guidance, we’re in a buyer’s market where prices are expected to fall further.

Canadian home prices peaked in March 2022, falling 22.5 percent, or $189,000, as of last month.

The 54-month correction only wiped out gains from February 2021 to March 2022.

A 13-month rise with the pandemic’s almost zero population growth took almost 5 years to correct.

"The demand balance also indicates that prices are still a little too steep," the data states.

Last year, a mild improvement in sales had much of the industry forecasting a recovery this year.

RBC even declared the bottom of the market, it was the 8th time in 4 years, but it still resonated with the industry.

After the first 9 months of 2026, the industry may be ready to change its tune.

This morning, CREA released its latest guidance showing downward revisions to its forecast.

With files from Better Dwelling